There is trouble brewing in the wind generation industry in Victoria. On 30 August AEMO (AustralianEnergy Market Operator) published its annual “Electricity Statement of Opportunities”, which summarises announced and planned investment in Australia’s electricity generation capacity. The document, and a 30 page Executive Briefing, is available on AEMO’s website.
“Committed” and “advanced” projects are 44.2% wind, 45.3% natural gas, and only 10.5% black coal or fuel oil. Over 16,000 MW of capacity is proposed for wind, with around one third of that in Victoria. Victoria has the best wind potential in Australia but current capacity is less than 500 MW. AEMO’s data has this increasing tenfold once announced projects are completed.
But even while the AEMO report was at the printers, the Victorian Government announced major restrictions on wind farms in Victoria. They include a two kilometre buffer zone between wind turbines and houses, and a requirement that they be at least five kilometres from major towns. The restrictions are at odds with many of the projects that have already been approved.
The announcement has already forced wind generators to move their attention from Victoria to other states. The government’s decision does not affect announced projects, but it remains possible that the planning rules that allowed these projects to be approved may yet be overturned, and that some projects may not proceed. Yet AEMO projects that Victoria’s generation needs will be significant over the next few years. The Victorian Government’s aversion to wind power is not based on the state’s electricity needs. It seems to be ideologically driven, with a strong dose of populism. Wind farm opponents are particularly vocal in Victoria, and have a political voice in the local branch of the National Party. Its policies are unfortunate, but the real test will be whether the projects already approved will proceed, or whether ideology will triumph over common sense.
